Elon Musk’s 2024 has been a whirlwind, marked by a strong turn towards right-wing politics and using his X platform (formerly Twitter) to influence the political landscape. But let’s set politics aside for a moment and focus on another familiar Musk theme: Tesla promises.
Musk’s ambitious promises—often followed by missed deadlines—have become a defining characteristic of the Tesla story. These bold claims have consistently captured investor imagination, contributing to Tesla’s once staggering $1.3 trillion valuation. Remember the 2015 prediction of self-driving Teslas within two years? Or the cross-country driverless road trips by the end of 2017? And who could forget the promise of a massive robotaxi network by 2020?
While Tesla has undeniably made history by producing and selling millions of electric vehicles, those specific promises, among many others, haven’t materialized. Yet, 2024 saw Musk continue this trend. Let’s recap the key Tesla promises made this year and their projected timelines.
The Elusive $25,000 EV:
Musk initially pledged a $25,000 electric vehicle in 2024, only to scrap the plan in April to prioritize the development of a robotaxi prototype. This pivot led to significant layoffs as Tesla shifted its focus to this “next phase of growth.”
Musk’s stance on this affordable EV has been inconsistent. During Tesla’s third-quarter earnings call, he dismissed the idea of a $25,000 car with a steering wheel and pedals as “pointless” and “silly,” suggesting the Cybercab would be the sole offering at that price. He further stated that all future Tesla vehicles would be autonomous, claiming that the “vast majority” of the 7 million Teslas built so far are “capable of autonomy,” with a current production rate of “35,000 autonomous vehicles a week.” It’s important to note that Musk uses a very broad definition of “autonomy” here, as no Tesla on the road today can operate safely without a human driver.
(A quick reminder: Back in 2016, a since-deleted Tesla blog post claimed that “All Tesla Cars Being Produced Now Have Full Self-Driving Hardware,” needing only a software update for full autonomy. This, of course, never came to fruition, and older Teslas have required hardware upgrades.)
Musk also projected 20-30% vehicle growth in 2025, driven by “lower cost vehicles” and the arrival of autonomy.
Cybercab Production by 2025 or 2026:
At a high-profile event in Hollywood this October, Tesla unveiled 20 Cybercab prototypes, with Musk outlining plans for these vehicles and Tesla’s “Full Self-Driving” (FSD) software. FSD, while capable of many automated driving tasks, still requires active human supervision.
Musk envisioned a sub-$30,000 robotaxi—a two-door, two-seater without a steering wheel or pedals—with operating costs eventually dropping to $0.20 per mile. Production was slated to begin in 2025 or 2026.
(For context: Musk predicted robotaxi mass production by 2024 in 2022. Before that, in 2019, he envisioned a million robotaxis on the roads by 2020. The “next year” solution for full self-driving has been a recurring theme since at least 2016.)
During the third-quarter earnings call, Musk refined this, stating Tesla would reach “volume production in ’26,” aiming for “at least 2 million units a year of Cybercab.”
Current federal regulations requiring standard safety features like manual controls could pose a challenge for Cybercab mass production. The National Highway Traffic Safety Administration has proposed rules to expedite exemptions for such vehicles, but these would require increased data sharing with the agency, including crash reporting—something Musk has previously opposed. The Trump transition team is reportedly considering scrapping these proposed rules.
The Mysterious Robovan:
Alongside the Cybercab, Tesla presented a Robovan prototype. While Musk initially provided no concrete details, a November post on X confirmed its development, along with “some other things.”
(A reminder: In 2016, Musk suggested a minibus based on the Model X chassis would be in production within two to three years.)
“Unsupervised FSD” and Autonomous Ride-Hailing in 2025:
Musk announced plans to roll out “unsupervised” FSD for Model 3 and Model Y owners in California and Texas by 2025. The exact meaning of “unsupervised” remains unclear. Currently, Tesla refers to its system as “supervised FSD,” highlighting the need for human oversight. “Unsupervised” could imply driverless operation or a Level 3 system allowing hands-off, eyes-off driving under certain conditions.
During the third-quarter earnings call, Musk expanded on this, expressing hope for a self-driving Tesla ride-hailing service in California and Texas by 2025, claiming employee testing had begun in the Bay Area.
(Background: California has a tiered permit system for autonomous vehicle testing. Tesla has held a permit for testing with safety drivers since 2015 but last reported using it in 2019.)
It’s unclear whether this service will utilize the Cybercabs or existing Model 3 and Model Y vehicles. Tesla has long teased a ride-hailing network where owners could monetize their autonomous Teslas, with Tesla taking a 25-30% cut—similar to Uber.
Finally, during the first-quarter earnings call, Musk mentioned discussions with a “major automaker” to license FSD, but no deal has been announced.
Optimus Robots: A Bold Prediction:
Musk has also made ambitious claims about Optimus, Tesla’s humanoid robot. He predicted “limited production” next year, with “over 1,000, or a few thousand, Optimus robots working at Tesla” in 2025, and consumer availability by 2026. Later, he added on X that Optimus would be available for other companies by 2026. He didn’t clarify whether these robots would operate fully autonomously or be remotely controlled.
(It’s worth noting: While humanoid robots are improving, most experts believe generalized robotics is still some time away due to limitations in training data.)
Beyond manufacturing, Musk suggested Optimus could one day boost Tesla’s market cap to a staggering $25 trillion—roughly seven times the current market caps of Apple and Nvidia. At the end of December, Tesla’s market cap hovered around $1.42 trillion, a nearly 160% increase from its pre-Trump-election $550 billion valuation.
Reference:
Elon Musk’s promises for Tesla in 2024, from robotaxis to Optimus bots
Frequently Asked Questions (FAQ):
No. Despite the name, Tesla’s FSD is an advanced driver-assistance system (ADAS) requiring constant human supervision. It’s not a fully autonomous system.
“Supervised FSD” means a human driver must be ready to take control at any time. “Unsupervised” is less clear but suggests either driverless operation or a Level 3 system where drivers can disengage under specific conditions.
Musk has suggested 2025 or 2026 for production, but previous timelines have been missed. Regulatory hurdles and technical challenges remain.
Musk has been inconsistent on this, suggesting the Cybercab will be the only option at that price point.
Musk has predicted this by 2025, but the capabilities of humanoid robots for complex manufacturing tasks are still under development.
Musk has a history of ambitious timelines that aren’t always met. It’s best to view these predictions with a degree of healthy skepticism.